“Voters seem to think Congress is like a weedy lot — that anything done to it will improve it — so they seem poised to produce something not seen since 1981-82. Then, for the first time since 1952, a majority of senators were in their first terms. This was the result of three consecutive churning elections — 1976, 1978 and 1980.
There certainly will be new senators from 14 states: Connecticut, Delaware, Florida, Illinois, Indiana, Kansas, Kentucky, Missouri, New Hampshire, North Dakota, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Utah and West Virginia. Furthermore, Alaska’s incumbent, Lisa Murkowski, whom the American Conservative Union ranks as the fourth-most liberal Senate Republican and who already has been rejected by Republicans in the primary, may lose her sore-loser write-in candidacy. Democratic incumbent Blanche Lincoln of Arkansas is behind by 20 points in the RealClearPolitics average of polls. Democratic incumbent Russ Feingold of Wisconsin is behind by an average of 6.7 points. And Democratic incumbent Michael Bennet of Colorado, appointed to the seat vacated when Ken Salazar became secretary of the interior, trails by a RealClearPolitics average of three points.
So there could be at least 18 freshmen senators in January. And several other incumbents — all Democrats — could lose. Since popular election of senators became mandatory in 1913, the largest crop of freshmen, 20, resulted from the 1978 upheaval that presaged the 18 new senators produced by the 1980 election.
If senators in their first terms are a majority of the body in 2011, there might be an anomalous condition that would have perplexed and perhaps vexed the Founding Fathers: The average seniority of House members might be higher than the average seniority of senators.
The Senate, with indirect election of its members (by state legislatures) and six-year terms, was designed to be Congress’s more stable half. If there is a majority of first-term members in 2011, many new members will have won by expressing disgust with Washington’s mores. This will challenge even the formidable leadership skills of Senate Republican leader Mitch McConnell.
After November, Republican eyes will turn to the prize of the presidency in 2012. Concerning which, McConnell sees cautionary lessons from three other years — 1946, 1954 and 1994.
In 1946, President Truman’s party lost control of both the House and Senate. In 1948, however, Truman won an improbable reelection running against the “do-nothing 80th Congress.” In 1954, President Eisenhower’s party lost control of the House and Senate. But two years later, Eisenhower was resoundingly reelected. In 1994, President Clinton’s party lost control of the House and Senate. In 1996, Clinton cruised to reelection, partly because of reckless behavior — e.g., the government shutdown of 1995 — by congressional Republicans.
Regarding House races, Jay Cost of the Weekly Standard notes that the Democratic Party has “an inefficiently distributed base of voters.” It “consists mostly of union workers, upscale urban liberals, and minority voters, many of whom are clustered in highly Democratic districts.” In many other districts, Democratic candidates depend on “independents and soft partisans,” the very voters who have defected from the Obama coalition of 2008.
If Democrats lose control of the House by a small number of seats, this might be condign punishment for a practice they favor and that Republicans have cynically encouraged — racial gerrymandering. It concentrates African American voters in majority-minority districts to guarantee the election of minority candidates.
On Nov. 2, there will be 37 gubernatorial elections. On Wednesday, Nov. 3, when the 15-month dash to the Iowa caucuses begins, Republicans may be savoring gains of eight or more governors, to a total of at least 31. They also may have gained 500 seats in state legislatures, mostly by retaking seats lost in the last two elections. This would expand Republican power over the redistricting that will be based on the 2010 census. Polidata Inc. estimates that states carried in 2008 by John McCain will gain a net of seven seats (and electoral votes) and that states Barack Obama carried will lose seven.
Finally, Curtis Gans, director of the Center for the Study of the American Electorate, reports that this year, for the first time since 1930, more Republicans — nearly 4 million more — than Democrats voted in midterm primaries. This “enthusiasm gap” favoring Republicans may close somewhat by Nov. 2, but that may be too late for many Democratic candidates:
Voting began in seven states in September. By Nov. 2, almost 40 percent of all ballots will have been cast.”
Comment: I am wary, not that it is impossible for Republicans to win, but that for many years now, voter fraud is omnipresent in America’s big cities, including in my own, Minneapolis. The Democrat Party of Minnesota, called DFL, Democratic-Farm-Labor has encouraged manipulation everywhere regardless of taste and honesty. Both leaders and followers believe themselves good people, and so, shouldn’t lose elections. No one knows how many votes in each major election, including the mid-terms are fraudulent.
Democrats in Minnesota, by religion are no longer churched, they are unionized and governmented. Being deep rooted socialists is chic, and therefore gives them feelings to do godly government’s work. Dishonest partisanship is merely a tool for success. Anything is righteous when doing godly government things, like permitting everyone to vote at least once or twice during a tight election. For the most important area of DFL corruption is not generally financial but in the numbers of whose vote is counted, especially counted multiple times as occurred to elect the chameleon, Al Franken.
Republicans are genrally cursed for being Christian here in our metropolitan Northland. Candidates learned their “facts” at the University when they went through “social science” indoctrinations. A Muslim candidate is fine, especially if he’s black and looks American. The robe wouldn’t at all do. Gopherland bigotry is carefully directed. It is proudly displayed in doing “good” government’s work, strengthening the Party.
Didn’t used to be that way. A generation ago I was quite active for a number of candidates who were honorable in an honorable political party, (mine, the DFLers), our honorable opponents, the Republicans, (We DFLers allowed them to admit they went to Church or Mass in those days.) Don Fraser, Art Naftalin, Gerry Dillon, Alpha Smaby, and Fritz Mondale when he was young, were good people. Dems who hated the Christian crowd cropped up mightily in the 1960s and 1970s and never looked back, as they say.
I remember the name Charlie Stenvig. He was a Democrat, and I believe he was chief of police, at one time. He didn’t fit the mold…..a cop who went to church, as I recall. He didn’t talk university. He was a decent guy, but not one of the Star-Tribune chosen. By his time running for the mayorship, the city had pretty much became one party rule. Everyone pleased with themselves in the Twin Cities, then and ever since, would become fixed, voting Democrats, the more lefty types, and become a powerful tribe led by the University Left’s marriage to the Democratic-Farm Labor Party, and included the local pretender colleges, Macalaster, Hamline, Augsburg, even, eventually, St. Thomas. All graduated a single kind of student from its halls of Marxist social science religious certitude. No, Charlie Stenvig didn’t fit in.
Collectively, the rulers developed a primary membership requirement; people of the community’s more conservative and traditional Christian organizations would be ostracized from civil leftwing society. Such groups could not measure up to the qualities of thinking the leftwing think-alikes permitted.
Communities throughout the Minneapolis and its suburban area would create quality neighborhoods where everyone would talk leftwingese, think leftwing, hire left wing, finance leftwing, and, above all, vote left wing. The good people had banded against “those others”.
Whatever George Will might be forcasting for the nation may have some value. I live in the Twin Cities, a community of people whose religion is socialism-labor-union-university bonded. Nothing is going to change this crowd. It is in their faith they believe they are superior because they are pleased with themselves for graduating university and so, have become more qualified to care more about others and to know what is right from what is wrong.