Fetterman Wins, Laxalt Pulls Ahead, Senate Hangs in the Balance
By Susan Crabtree – at RealClearPolitics:
November 09, 2022
LAS VEGAS — Shortly after 1 a. m. PST loud cheering rang out in a section of the Red Rock Casino Resort and Casino, the site of a Nevada GOP election night watch party that had ended with a whimper only an hour and a half before.
In a party town where revelers are used to pulling all-nighters, Tuesday night was a nervous low-key waiting game instead of the “red-wave blowout” many had planned.
But in the wee hours of Wednesday morning, Nevada Republicans finally had something to celebrate. Adam Laxalt, the conservative Republican challenger to Democratic incumbent Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto, had pulled slightly ahead for the first time – albeit by only 385 votes. Laxalt’s lead eventually grew to 2.7% with 80% of the vote counted, although results remain fluid.
The Silver State’s hard-fought Senate race was supposed to be the exciting eye of the storm on election night – where control of the Senate could be determined. But results only started rolling in at 10 p.m. PST, and final tallies could take days as mail ballots returned on the final day in the state’s largest county may not be counted until early this week.
Still, the results are crucial. As the final result hangs in the balance so too does control of the Senate, with three other Senate races remaining too close to call – and Georgia seemingly heading for a Dec. 6 runoff to decide the race between Sen. Raphael Warnock and Republican challenger Herschel Walker.
Close to midnight, Laxalt, with wife Jaime by his side, ended the night with a positive message to supporters – even as he urged patience: “We are exactly where we need to be. With votes coming in across the state yet to be tabulated, we are going to win this race!”
Echoing his stump speeches, Laxalt promised to support police, fight “to make our streets safe again,” re-secure the southern border, open U.S. energy production “to get inflation and gas prices under control,” and gurantee parental rights in schools. He also pledged never to allow COVID lockdowns again in Nevada.
Laxalt then delivered a very personal jab at Democrats’ efforts to make the race in Nevada and the midterms in general a rejection of the Supreme Court’s early summer decision to overturn Roe v. Wade. After thanking his wife and children, he offered a personal note of gratitude to his mother.
“I would not be here today if she did not choose to bring me into this world, and I owe everything to her,” he said. Laxalt, grandson of the late Nevada Sen. Paul Laxalt, is also the son of the late Sen. Pete Domenici, a staunch Catholic who was married to another woman at the time Adam was born.
“Unfortunately, we’re in for a long night, and maybe into a few days this week as all the votes are tabulated,” he said. But we’re confident that the numbers are there, and we are going to win this race and take back Nevada and take back America!”
At her own watch party Cortez Masto told supporters that they won’t know the results for several days. “But I am confident in the campaign that we have built to win,” she added, “and I’m so grateful to every Nevadan, who knocked on doors and made phone calls and stood up and fought for our state.”
Across the country, just half an hour earlier, Republican prospects for taking back the Senate narrowed when Lt. Gov. John Fetterman defeated GOP candidate Mehmet Oz in Pennsylvania by 2.5 percentage points. The victory marked the first Senate-seat flip of the election, with Fetterman filling the seat of retiring Republican Sen. Pat Toomey.
“We jammed them up – we held the line,” Fetterman told supporters after the cable networks called the race in his favor. “I never expected that we were going to turn those red counties blue, but we did what we needed to do.”
Three other Senate races remained too close to call as of Wednesday morning: Arizona, Georgia, and Wisconsin. If Wisconsin Republican Sen. Ron Johnson holds on to his slim lead, which seems likely, Republicans will need to win two of the three remaining toss-ups – Arizona, Georgia, and Nevada – to win control of the Senate.
This morning, Arizona Democratic Sen. Mark Kelly led Republican Blake Masters, 56% to 41.4%, but with only two-thirds of the vote counted. In Wisconsin incumbent Sen. Ron Johnson, a strong Trump ally, was hanging onto a sliver of a lead, 50.7% to Mandela Barnes’ 49.2% with an estimated 99% of the voted counted. In Georgia, Walker and Warnock were separated by only some 29,000 votes, with Warnock leading Walker 49.1% to 48.8% and 96% of the vote counted.
If neither candidate gets to 50%, they will have to do it all over again in a month, which is what happened in Georgia two years ago when both Georgia Senate races went to Democrats. “We always knew that this race would be close – so you all hang in there,” Warnock told supporters Tuesday night. “I’m feeling good.”
Pundits pointed out the top of the ticket in each state – those vying for governor – were either dragging down or helping to boost Senate GOP candidates. That appeared to be the case with Doug Mastriano, the GOP candidate for Pennsylvania governor, who fared poorly Tuesday night and pulled down Oz, while more popular governors and candidates for the highest state office helped pull up other GOP Senate candidates. (Mastriano lost to Josh Shapiro, 42.8% to 55.3%.)
Meanwhile, popular Ohio Gov. Mike DeWine won by 25.8 percentage points, helping boost Republican J.D. Vance to a 7-point win over Democratic Rep. Tim Ryan.
“There’s a reason why Vance thanked DeWine first,” Karl Rove remarked on Fox News after Vance’s decisive win. “We saw the opposite in Pennsylvania where the [GOP] governor candidate was a drag on the ticket.”
Another way to look at this phenomenon is that voters were willing to split their tickets in cases where one candidate appealed to them more than another. In Georgia, for instance, while the ardently pro-life Walker had to contend with allegations he paid two ex-girlfriends to have abortions, Republican Gov. Brian Kemp won his reelection over Stacey Abrams with room to spare.
All around the country, incumbent senators fared better than many prognosticators and pollsters predicted. Democrats who appeared vulnerable toward the end of their campaigns, including Maggie Hassan in New Hampshire and Michael Bennet in Colorado, won solid victories that were called relatively early Tuesday night. Sen. Marco Rubio’s resounding 16-point win over Democratic Rep. Val Demings in Florida was an early boost for Republicans, while Republican Ted Budd is expected to retain his 3.6% lead over Democrat Cheri Beasley in North Carolina to keep that seat in the GOP column.
When it came to the pivotal state of Nevada, GOP pollster John McLaughlin credited popular Clark County Sheriff Joe Lombardo with helping to pull Republican votes in the traditionally Democratic stronghold for himself and Laxalt. As of the last vote count update, Lombardo was running roughly 5 points ahead of incumbent Gov. Steve Sisolak. He also said Latinos seem to have swung to the GOP more strongly than in previous years.
“There’s a lot of red in Nevada right now,” McLaughlin said early Wednesday morning. “What seems to be putting Laxalt and Lombardo over the top are Hispanic voters right now.”
“The Democrats are doing better in the early voting,” he added, “and in Election Day voting Republicans are doing better – significantly better.”
As Tuesday turned into Wednesday, rank-and-file Republican voters around the country expressed disappointment, while remaining hopeful. Tanner and Amanda Jones, a married couple who strongly supported Adam Laxalt, left the Vegas watch party optimistic that he would prevail, while also feeling slightly chastened that the much anticipated “red wave” did not materialize nationwide.
“It was not surprising…I think we kind of came into the night expecting that,” Tanner Jones said. “And in some ways, it’s good that everyone’s expectations were accurate about how close it would be.”
“I think we expected to see a little bit better in Georgia, a little bit better in Wisconsin, and in Pennsylvania that was really disappointing too,” Amanda Jones conceded. “And I think we were hoping to see a closer New York race for governor – so that was also disappointing red-wave-wise.”
“I had hoped to see a little more movement in this race tonight,” she said. “But we’re still hopeful … very hopeful.”
Susan Crabtree is RealClearPolitics’ White House/national political correspondent.
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